About the time we’re done screaming, pooping ourselves, and being the object of our mother’s oxytocin, we get introduced to the alphabet. You know… the A, B, C’s. We really don’t know what it’s all about, but we go along with it because the big people hold the keys to the cereal and cartoons. Eventually we figure out nouns, verbs, sentence construction and the elusive “dangling participle”. All is well.
Sometime around the middle teens they show us algebra. By that time we’re pretty much done with pooping ourselves (hopefully) and we’ve moved onto what we can get away with and not get caught, sneaking the occasional smoke, and hoping he or she likes me. In this part of life, the A, B, C’s are translated into their algebraic equivalent. “If A = B, and B = C, then A = C.” Seems about right. All is well.
But when we get into our 20’s this A, B, C thing starts getting a little weird. It’s as if our parents, teachers, and handlers were programming us all along to persuade and influence us and maybe even our sacred vote. I too was an unwitting dupe until one day the universe put someone smarter than just about any I’ve ever met in my path. His name is Dr. Stu and he lives at the intersection of smart and cool. He’s the one who taught me about causation and correlation. And that changed everything.
Dr. Stu is a self-proclaimed scientist although he’s way cooler than Bill Nye the Science Guy. Ever since then I’ve begun to see how those two paradigms of causation and correlation have a much broader reach application in everyday life. Like the ABC’s and even basic algebra, the postulate of causation and correlation is probably the most powerful tool we have in this world to know the difference between what’s real and fake – even when it comes to the news.
Perhaps the most important book every written was Orwell’s 1984. If you’ve never read it, or if it’s just been a while, a refresh and review is a good summer read. One of the subtexts of this masterpiece is the role that the media and the state have on influencing our beliefs. Fifty years later, the great jig aloo and English poet Roger Daltry upped the ante when he reminded is not to get fooled again. Unwinding causation and correlation will help us do just that. Here are three simple examples:
Example #1: Climate Change
Before I get into this, a disclaimer: I really don’t know “the truth” about climate change although I’m pretty sure that putting a bunch of gook into the air, water and land of our Mother isn’t good for her. That said, the temperature of the earth is rising and we all know it. And because of that we’re told that a lot of bad things happen to Her and maybe us too (that’s correlation). But the real question is about causation – the human element. Is the earth’s temperature rising because of human activity (causation), or is it just another hot flash of our middle-aged Mother as other scientists would claim (correlation)?
Example #2: The Mueller Report
Remember the Mueller Report? Seems like a million years ago, doesn’t it? And yet that was the present under the tree millions of us anticipated opening like giddy little children for almost three years. And that too was all about causation and correlation. Did Russian influence tip the vote and tip it (causation) or did people already have their minds made up months before the Facebook ads hit (correlation)? Kind of reminds me of that one commercial in the 70’s with the owl asking us a question not much different than the purpose of life itself: “How many licks does it take to get to the chocolaty middle of a Charms Pop?” For you millennials out there, the answer was, “the world may never know.”
Example #3: Inflation
I don’t watch the tele much, but I do have one ritual, I take in the Sunday shows religiously every week and I listen to both sides. I do this because I want to know how the decisions makers are deciding on the policies that govern us all. Last week there was this one topic in particular: the flooding of the economy with cash. I listened to the Secretary of the Treasury lay out her argument about how it was just and fit and right and that inflation was at the target 2%. Then I listened to a senator (one who actually votes on all of this) pretty much oppose everything she said. I turned off the tube and turned on the radio. A Dire Straits song sang to me, “two men say they’re Jesus, one of them must be wrong.” Bought a sheet of plywood lately? Sheesh.
I thank Dr. Stu for that advice and a lot more. If he were here I think he would remind us all to never, ever comingle causation and correlation because the A B C’s are the same and the algebra is too. And life was so much easier when all we had to worry about was cereal, cartoons, and making it to the toilet on time.
Yep, I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what he would say.
Good luck and have a good week.
Joe Still
2021.06.16
Cite
“We won’t get fooled again.”
Rodger Daltry